Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 61.7% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL in this respect has been the Detroit Lions.
The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 62.5 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The model projects Jared Goff to throw 37.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a 5.5-point favorite this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.

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