Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 2, 2026 10:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-172/+150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to run 67.9 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Jared Goff to throw 36.1 passes in this game, on balance: the 9th-most among all quarterbacks.
Jared Goff's passing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 66.8% to 70.4%.
With a remarkable ratio of 1.91 per game (95th percentile), Jared Goff has been as one of the best TD passers in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Detroit Lions to pass on 56.0% of their chances: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The Detroit Lions have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game versus the Panthers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

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