Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs New York Jets · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 1:12 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -210 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Jared Goff has attempted 32.9 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 95th percentile among QBs.
Jared Goff has been one of the top TD throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.90 per game while checking in at the 98th percentile.
Since the start of last season, the anemic New York Jets defense has been torched for a whopping 2.05 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Lions profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Jets cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.