Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
With a stellar rate of 1.57 per game (78th percentile), Jared Goff stands as one of the best TD passers in the NFL this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest clip in the NFL versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (75.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The Lions are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 52.9% red zone pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 124.5 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
In this week's game, Jared Goff is predicted by the projections to have the 10th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.2.

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