Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Lions being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Lions profiles as the best in the NFL this year.
Jared Goff's 68.7% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a a substantial progression in his passing precision over last season's 65.1% rate.
Jared Goff has been among the leading TD passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 1.83 per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (50.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Lions.
The projections expect the Lions offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.64 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in the league versus the Ravens defense this year (67.7% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the formidable Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed a puny 0.67 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the lowest rate in the NFL.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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