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Jared Goff

Jared Goff TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -138 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Lions to call the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.0 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Jared Goff's 68.4% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies a a remarkable progression in his throwing accuracy over last year's 65.1% figure.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in football versus the Panthers defense since the start of last season (73.7% Adjusted Completion%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Lions are a giant 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to pass on 54.0% of their plays: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 50.6% red zone pass rate.

Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.2 per game) this year.

The Panthers defense has conceded the 8th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.00 per game this year.

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