|
|
Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -130.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.Jared Goff's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 65.1% to 69.1%.Jared Goff has been among the leading touchdown passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.70 per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.Since the start of last season, the poor Packers defense has been gouged for a staggering 72.2% Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 8th-highest rate in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 51.9% red zone pass rate.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.The model projects Jared Goff to attempt 33.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the 11th-fewest of all quarterbacks.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
