Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In registering a massive 38.2 pass attempts per game this year, Jared Goff slots in among the top quarterbacks in the league (86th percentile) in this respect.
The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in the league near the goal line (50.6% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Lions.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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