Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to attempt 38.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Jared Goff's passing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.2% to 60.0%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (65.4%).
The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 8th-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.00 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 5th-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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