Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+142/-182).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -149 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -182.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to attempt 35.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
Jared Goff has been among the top touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging an impressive 1.81 per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in football against the Green Bay Packers defense this year (72.8%).
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Lions have been the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 51.6% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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