Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:58 AM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jared Goff has attempted 37.3 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 79th percentile among QBs.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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