Jared Goff Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 2, 2026 9:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-109/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to run 67.9 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The Detroit Lions have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
After accounting for 2.8% of his offense's run game usage last year, Jared Goff has been called on more in the ground game this year, now taking on 8.6%.

Favors Under

The model projects Jared Goff to garner 2.4 carries in this game, on balance: the 5th-fewest among all QBs.
Jared Goff has averaged just 4.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in football when it comes to QBs (14th percentile).
Jared Goff's rushing efficiency has declined this season, averaging a measly 0.46 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 7.41 figure last season.