Jared Goff Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs New York Jets · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+128/-175).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.
After accounting for 2.8% of his offense's carries last season, Jared Goff has had a larger role in the run game this season, now sitting at 9.4%.
Since the start of last season, the porous Jets run defense has yielded a monstrous 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the worst in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions as the 11th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 41.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Jared Goff to accumulate 2.1 carries in this game, on balance: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.
With an awful total of 4.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (15th percentile), Jared Goff ranks among the worst rushing quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season.
Jared Goff rates as one of the weakest QBs in the NFL at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 0.78 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 19th percentile.