Jared Goff Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 43.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this week (7.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to accrue 2.0 carries in this week's game, on average: the 6th-least of all QBs.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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