Jared Goff Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Passing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 23, 2026 2:03 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 274.5 (-123/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 279.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 274.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to pass on 61.3% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 136.4 plays on offense called: the most out of all the games this week.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
In this contest, Jared Goff is predicted by the projection model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 40.3.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 8th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 222.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Packers defense this year.
This year, the imposing Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a puny 6.8 yards.
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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