Jared Goff Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 17, 2026 8:48 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 258.5 (-109/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 274.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 258.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
The projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 38.0 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.1 per game) since the start of last season.
When it comes to pass protection (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Bills defense has allowed a paltry 177.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.