Jared Goff Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Passing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 268.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 271.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 268.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
With a fantastic rate of 275.0 adjusted passing yards per game (89th percentile), Jared Goff stands among the leading quarterbacks in the league this year.
Jared Goff profiles as one of the most effective passers in football this year, averaging an outstanding 7.52 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

The Lions are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 124.5 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
In this week's game, Jared Goff is predicted by the projections to have the 10th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 36.2.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.4 per game) this year.