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Jared Goff

Jared Goff Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions

Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 254.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 231.5 @ -129.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.

Jared Goff has passed for significantly more yards per game (262.0) this season than he did last season (229.0).

The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Jared Goff's passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.2% to 58.9%.

Opposing teams have thrown for the 8th-least yards in football (just 205.0 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.

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