Jared Goff Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Passing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 231.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jared Goff has attempted 37.3 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 79th percentile among QBs.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 4th-highest rate in the league vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jared Goff has been among the least effective quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a mere 6.46 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 16th percentile.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has exhibited good efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 7.21 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.51 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the league.

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