JaMycal Hasty Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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JaMycal Hasty

NFL · Player Props

JaMycal Hasty

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 23, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

JaMycal Hasty Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Jamycal Hasty's ground efficiency (5.03 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (81st percentile among running backs).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 10th-least run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 36.7% run rate.
Jamycal Hasty has been on the field for 16.6% of his team's snaps this year, ranking him in the 17th percentile among running backs.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for rushers.
The New York Jets defense owns the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 4.15 yards-per-carry.

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