Jamison Crowder Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jamison Crowder

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Jamison Crowder Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+440/-1011).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -974 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1011.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jamison Crowder has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, completing a stellar 73.2% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Jamison Crowder to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack near the goal line this week (9.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.3% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams defense has given up the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.59 per game since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.