Jameson Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jameson Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jameson Williams

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 12:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jameson Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Lions offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.66 seconds per play.
With an exceptional 93.2% Route% (96th percentile) this year, Jameson Williams rates as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in the NFL.
In this week's contest, Jameson Williams is predicted by the projection model to slot into the 76th percentile among WRs with 6.1 targets.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Lions ranks as the 7th-best in football this year.
Jameson Williams comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 3.9 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 55.6% of their chances: the 10th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.7 per game) this year.

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