Jameson Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jameson Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jameson Williams

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 4:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jameson Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 6th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Lions this year (a massive 60.9 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jameson Williams has been used less as a potential target this year (42.3% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (16.4%).
When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year.
Jameson Williams's 1.7 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a significant boost in his receiving skills over last year's 0.1 figure.

Favors Under

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a giant 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 127.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a measly 33.4 per game) this year.
Jameson Williams checks in as one of the least sure-handed receivers in football, catching a mere 49.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 18th percentile among WRs
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Green Bay's CB corps has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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