Jameson Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jameson Williams

NFL · Player Props

Jameson Williams

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:57 AM EST

Analysis

Jameson Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-146/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).
The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point boost in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) from last year to this one, Jameson Williams has been more heavily featured in his offense's passing offense.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.9% pass rate.
Jameson Williams has been one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 40.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 9th percentile among wide receivers
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63%) to WRs this year (63.0%).

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