James Robinson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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James Robinson

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Rushing TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+212/-323).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +221 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +212.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 49.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
James Robinson has run for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (89th percentile).
The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to be a less important option in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (43.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.8% in games he has played).
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least TDs in the league (0.33 per game) against the New York Giants defense this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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