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James Robinson

James Robinson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 7

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Giants

 
 
 
James Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+212/-323).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +221 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +212.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jaguars are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 49.0% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 4th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.29 seconds per snap.
  • James Robinson has run for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (89th percentile).
  • The New York Giants safeties grade out as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to defending the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to be a less important option in his offense's run game near the end zone this week (43.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.8% in games he has played).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
  • Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-least TDs in the league (0.33 per game) against the New York Giants defense this year.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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