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James Robinson

James Robinson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

James Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

James Robinson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 68.8% to 86.4%.

The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

James Robinson's 7.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 14.5.

The Houston Texans pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.5%) versus RBs this year (67.5%).

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