James Robinson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

James Robinson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
James Robinson has run a route on 46.2% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 81st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
James Robinson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football among RBs, hauling in just 68.3% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 6th percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has yielded the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (77.7%) versus running backs since the start of last season (77.7%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.