James Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

James Robinson

RB · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

James Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
James Robinson has run a route on 46.5% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

James Robinson has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, completing just 69.4% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 6th percentile.
James Robinson has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league among RBs, averaging just 4.98 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 24th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 30.0) vs. RBs since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers project as the 7th-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.