James Cook Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing TD

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

James Cook Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-510).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +342 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +292.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 38.6% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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