James Cook Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
James Cook has run more routes this year (48.2% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (19.1%).
The predictive model expects James Cook to notch 2.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
James Cook's pass-catching performance improved this year, accumulating 2.4 adjusted catches vs a mere 1.3 last year.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, New York's collection of LBs has been great this year, profiling as the best in football.

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