James Cook Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect James Cook to earn 3.7 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
James Cook has been a more important option in his offense's passing game this season (11.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (6.2%).
James Cook has accrued a staggering 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among running backs. (That may not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bills have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.0 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.35 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 7th-fewest in football.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Miami's unit has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the best in the league.