James Cook Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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James Cook

NFL · Player Props

James Cook

RB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 27, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

James Cook Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Bills are a huge favorite in this game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
The predictive model expects James Cook to total 13.1 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.
James Cook has been a much bigger part of his offense's running game this season (51.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.1%).
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 32.3% run rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see just 125.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
When talking about run support (and the importance it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.

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