James Conner Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to earn 15.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
James Conner has picked up 63.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (90th percentile).

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a massive 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 6th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 38.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

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