James Conner Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.25 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to total 11.3 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
James Conner has grinded out 50.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (81st percentile).
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 6th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
James Conner has been much less involved in his offense's run game this year (41.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (52.6%).
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.