James Conner Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-260).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 70.2 plays per game.
James Conner has received 41.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 77th percentile among running backs.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-most TDs in the NFL (1.00 per game) vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Arizona Cardinals have used some form of misdirection on a lowly 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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