James Conner Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-373).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.25 seconds per play.
James Conner has received 50.0% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
James Conner has rushed for 0.89 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (98th percentile).
Opposing squads have run for the 9th-most touchdowns in the league (1.00 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends grade out as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Arizona Cardinals have used some form of misdirection on a mere 34.3% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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