James Conner Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Denver Broncos vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+142/-199).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +178 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 9th-most run-oriented team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 45.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the end zone this week (75.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (58.8% in games he has played).
James Conner has run for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (86th percentile).

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.54 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Arizona Cardinals have utilized some form of misdirection on just 34.3% of their plays since the start of last season (least in the league), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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