James Conner Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

reorder

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Rushing TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+224/-354).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -318 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -354.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 10th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 44.8% red zone run rate.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 128.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football this year in run blocking.
Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-least touchdowns in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.