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James Conner

James Conner Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Miami Dolphins vs Arizona Cardinals

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-220/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Cardinals being a -5-point underdog in this week's game.

The predictive model expects James Conner to accrue 3.1 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile among running backs.

James Conner has been heavily involved in his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 9.5% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile among RBs.

When talking about pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Arizona Cardinals ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.

The Dolphins safeties profile as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Right now, the 7th-least pass-focused team in the league (58.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Arizona Cardinals.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).

The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: fewest in the league.

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