James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 22, 2024 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Cardinals, who are -4-point underdogs.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With an impressive 61.9% Snap% (89th percentile) since the start of last season, James Conner has been as one of the RBs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
James Conner rates as one of the best possession receivers in the league among RBs, hauling in a fantastic 87.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 10th-least pass-oriented offense in football (58.8% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cardinals.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are predicted by the projections to call only 61.9 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has given up the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.4%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (72.4%).
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Detroit's collection of safeties has been fantastic since the start of last season, grading out as the 8th-best in football.

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