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James Conner
NFL · Player Props
James Conner
RB · Arizona Cardinals
Receptions
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023 Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM UTC
NFL Props James Conner Receptions

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -165.

Favors Over
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
  • James Conner's 84.4% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a substantial improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 81.4% figure.
  • The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has been gouged for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.3%) to running backs this year (86.3%).
  • The Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
Favors Under
  • The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
  • Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
  • James Conner has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (43.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (61.5%).
  • The Arizona offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
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