James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-165/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
James Conner's 84.4% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates a substantial improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 81.4% figure.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has been gouged for the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.3%) to running backs this year (86.3%).
The Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
James Conner has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (43.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (61.5%).
The Arizona offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

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