James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
James Conner has run a route on 61.5% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects James Conner to garner 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 5th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.0% pass rate.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (75.1%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (75.1%).