James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-205).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 70.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

James Conner's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 94.7% to 78.1%.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (76.2%) to RBs this year (76.2%).
The Philadelphia Eagles linebackers rank as the 7th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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