James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-182/+139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -179 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.25 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.

Favors Under

James Conner's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 94.6% to 81.8%.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box versus opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.