James Conner Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Trace McSorley in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

James Conner's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.2% to 79.6%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebackers rank as the 9th-best collection of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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