James Conner Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a massive 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
James Conner's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling a measly 1.84 yards-per-target compared to a 5.22 mark last season.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 25.0) versus running backs since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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