James Conner Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:26 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB David Blough in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 9th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.1 plays per game.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
James Conner has posted a paltry -9.0 air yards per game this year: just 3rd percentile among running backs.
James Conner's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.2% to 80.3%.
James Conner's pass-catching efficiency has diminished this year, notching a measly 4.93 yards-per-target vs a 8.98 rate last year.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) to running backs this year.

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