James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 6, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 43.2% run rate.
The model projects James Conner to notch 16.4 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Out of all RBs, James Conner ranks in the 95th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 64.8% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack.

Favors Under

The Cardinals are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.5 plays per game.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, San Francisco's collection of DEs has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 8th-best in football.