My Account Log Out

reorder

James Conner

James Conner Carries
Player Prop Week 1

Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -134 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the league (43.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cardinals.

The Cardinals have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL last year, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier weather in this week's contest.

Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being called for in this game) typically cause worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

In this game, James Conner is predicted by the model to rank in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.2 rush attempts.

Among all running backs, James Conner ranks in the 90th percentile for rush attempts last year, making up 58.4% of the workload in his offense's running game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Cardinals being a huge -7-point underdog this week.

The model projects the Cardinals to run the 7th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

More James Conner Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™