James Conner Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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James Conner

NFL · Player Props

James Conner

RB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

James Conner Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-108/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 43.9% run rate.
The leading projections forecast James Conner to accumulate 16.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs.
James Conner has earned 58.5% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the 28th-worst safety corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Cardinals to call the 2nd-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football last year in run blocking.

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